18 March 28, 2025 VOL. 44 • ISS. 3

SACRAMENTO – State and federal fisheries managers announced an alarmingly low ocean abundance forecast of just 165,655 Sacramento River Fall Chinook Salmon during the California Department of Fish and Wildlife( CDFW) annual 2025 Salmon Information Meeting on Feb. 26. The low abundance of the once bountiful salmon run makes it likely that recreational and commercial fishing will be closed, or at best very restricted, for the third year in a row. However, fisheries managers said it would be“ predecisional” for them to say at the meeting that there will be no salmon fishing seasons in California ocean and river waters this year. The ocean abundance forecast, known as the Sacramento Index,“ provides science-based advice to the Pacific Fishery Management Council( PFMC) during its annual salmon fishing season setting process that will take place over the next couple months,” explained Scott Artis, Executive Director of the Golden State Salmon Association. Sacramento River Fall-Run Chinook, historically the largest contributor to fisheries off California and southern Oregon, have experienced dramatic declines over the last 5 years.“ This has resulted in closed salmon fishing seasons in 2023 and 2024, tens of thousands of commercial and recreational fishermen out of work, and fishing businesses facing closures,” said Artis. The 2025 forecast significantly lower than the 213,622 fall-run salmon ocean abundance forecasted last year at this time. This“ will constrain 2025 fisheries,” said Dr. Michael O’ Farrell, Fish Biologist and leader of the Fisheries Assessment Modeling Team at the Southwest Fisheries Science Center of the National Marine Fisheries Service.“ We must target an escapement of at least 122,000 fish( maximum 25.4 percent exploitation rate,” said O’ Farrell. Escapement is the number of fish that return to the rivers and tributaries to spawn. The Sacramento Winter Chinook Salmon abundance forecast is 4,507, higher than 2024, but still a far cry from 1969 when 117,000 of the fish returned to the river to spawn. The maximum allowable age 3 impact rate on this endangered fish, listed

under the state and federal Endangered Species Act, is 20 percent. This“ may constrain California ocean fisheries” also, said O’ Farrell. Fishery managers said we must“ proceed with caution” in“ another tough year” when determining the upcoming California salmon fishing season, noted Artis. Representatives of both CDFW and NOAA noted poor out-migrating river conditions for baby salmon – specifically the Sacramento River having experienced low water flows and high temperatures in recent years, observed Artis. Prior to the meeting, the Pacific Fishery Management Council released its review of the 2024 salmon fisheries that reported a preliminary estimate of 99,274 adult fall-run Chinook that returned to the Sacramento River Basin last year.

“ The Governor has the power to protect California’ s salmon and fishing communities, but time and again, he’ s sacrificed salmon families to cater to the state’ s big ag water interests.”

Fall Chinook returns to Sacramento River hatcheries in 2024 totaled 26,834 adults and 8,301 jacks( two year-old fish), while escapement to natural areas was 72,440 adults and 10,864 jacks, according to the document. Spawner escapement in 2024 of endangered Sacramento River Winter Chinook, an endangered species under both the state and federal Endangered Species Acts, was estimated to be only 789 adults and 578 jacks. Escapement of Spring Chinook to the Sacramento River system in 2024 totaled only 2,646 fish( jacks and adults), with an estimated return of 176 to upper Sacramento River tributaries and the remaining 2,470 fish returning to the Feather River Hatchery. Most of those 176 fish returned to Butte Creek, the last stronghold for wild Spring Chinooks, though the CDFW and NOAA didn’ t respond to my question at the meeting regarding the specific number of fish that returned to the creek.“ Overall, these very poor results were primarily caused by the low water and excessive industrial agribusiness diversions that occurred in the spring of 2022 when the baby salmon were trying to transit the river to the ocean,” said Artis.“ While many fertilized eggs failed to hatch because of high water temperatures created by dam operations, the few young salmon that year mostly failed to survive out-migration in the deadly low, warm river conditions. The bad water conditions were greatly exacerbated by federal water policies, which were embraced by Governor Gavin Newsom, that favored agricultural water deliveries over all else.”“ This is not a fishing problem,” Artis emphasized.“ The salmon fishery has been closed for two years and that means all fingers are pointing at poor water management. The Governor has the power to protect California’ s salmon and fishing communities, but time and again, he’ s sacrificed salmon families to cater to the state’ s big ag water interests.” Artis said the“ abysmal fall-run salmon numbers” come on the heels of Golden State Salmon Association’ s announcement on Feb. 25 that hatchery salmon survival can be dramatically increased up to 15 times by engaging a short-haul trucking release strategy.“ The new strategy, championed by the organization, trucks salmon from the Coleman National Fish Hatchery approximately 107 miles downstream to a release site in the Sacramento River. Recently collected US Fish and Wildlife Service data indicated trucked salmon survive and return to spawn at 3 to 15 times higher rates than hatchery fish released directly at the hatchery, which is the standard practice,” stated Artis.“ There’ s no more time to lose. Salmon and the fishing industry don’ t have the luxury to sit back and watch state and federal politicians promote the same old failed water policies year after year,” concluded Artis.“ In low water or drought years, trucking baby hatchery salmon downstream will give them a chance at survival – driving them around treacherous stretches of the upper Sacramento River where many are lost to predators, low flows, and high water temperatures. The dismal salmon numbers are telling us it’ s time to implement new hatchery trucking procedures today.” The Sacramento River system isn’ t the only river system seeing a low abundance of salmon. The 2025 Klamath River ocean abundance forecast is only 67,056 age 3 Fall Chinook, 14,333 age 4 Fall Chinook and 1,283 age 5 Fall Chinook, according to O’ Farrell. Regarding Klamath River Fall Chinook management, the potential spawner abundance is 20,763 with a maximum exploitation rate of 10 percent and a minimum natural area escapement rate of 18,687. This“ will constrain ocean fisheries,” O’ Farrell observed. The good news is that in 2024, four dams were removed from the Klamath River, allowing salmon to move upstream from the site of Iron Gate Dam for the first time in many decades.“ Newly available mainstem and tributary habitats were occupied by salmon following dam removal,” the PFMC reported.“ Substantial monitoring efforts Oregon and California provided age-specific spawner estimates for the 2024 run.” The estimated run size in the Klamath mainstem and its tributaries from Iron Gate( California) to Keno Dam was 1,494 adults and 151 jacks in 2024, the PFMC reported. This is much lower than the preliminary estimate by California Trout that more than 6,000 salmon had returned to the river above the former site of Iron Gate Dam. California representatives worked to develop a range of recommended ocean fishing season alternatives at the March 5-11, Pacific Fishery Management Council meeting in Vancouver, Washington. One alternative is a complete closure, while the other two alternatives are very limited seasons with short four day windows and a maximum number of fish allowed to be caught. Final season recommendations will be adopted at the Pacific Fishery Management Council’ s April 9-15, meeting in San Jose, California. The range of inland salmon fishing regulation options will be discussed on April 16-17, in Sacramento, California with final inland season recommendations and adoption scheduled for the May 14, Teleconference meeting. Please see the Ocean Salmon webpage and the Fish and Game Commission meetings webpage( opens in new tab) for a complete calendar of events and contact information regarding the salmon preseason process, including other opportunities for public engagement.